Fantasy Baseball SP Roundup 5/18: The Trevor Rogers Story
Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher's performance from every Monday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv (https://twitch.tv/pitcherlist) weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Trevor Rogers (BAL) @ TBR (L) – 3.2 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 88 pitches.
I get burned a lot. It’s a part of the job. After all, these are humans throwing baseballs and even if one pitcher looks great with great results one time, they could look great with terrible results the next time. And sometimes, they look flat-out terrible, making all of us wonder why I even suggested it in the first place. Trevor Rogers, as much as I’ve seen you execute beautifully this season without your reward, last night’s 3.2 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 88 pitches (L) against the Rays was difficult to watch. Even with your four-seamer sitting 94+ mph (and not allowing a hit!), the Rays jumped on your secondaries with ease after fouling off nearly 40% of your four-seamers. It’s a depressing feeling when you can’t get batters out with your fastballs, forcing you to throw secondaries you know they are going to hit. In fact, Rogers earned 1/33 whiffs on changeups, cutters, and sweepers. That’s brutal. Sure is. Sure is.
What happens now? I hate this. I’m the guy who puts so many elements into a massive cauldron before making an assessment, and while results are part of it, what matters more is the whole state of the arsenal. The variety, the approach, the stuff, command, team context, what’s working, what’s new, all of it. If I didn’t know he had a 6.87 ERA and 1.66 WHIP for the year, I’d actually be into this. That’s what makes it so hard. How could you?! Because I’m blind to the results in this hypothetical, yeeeesh. The rational choice is clear – you stay far away until the results change massively – but those who turn their back fully on Rogers for the rest of the season may regret it later. It doesn’t fully add up and I’m curious what comes next.
Michael King (SDP) vs LAD (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 100 pitches.
Mmmmmmm this is the fun stuff. That changeup was alive and well against LHB and he also returned some lovely strikeouts with a front hip sinker, a pair of backdoor sweepers, a dotted four-seamer down-and-away to both LHB and RHB, and even on a day where his breakers didn’t perform well against RHB, he obliterated one of the best offenses in the bigs. He’s back, y’all. Truly a King Cole today.
Max Meyer (MIA) vs ATL (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 97 pitches.
Against Hotlanta, y’all. HOT. LANTA. His four-seamer has the stuff, confidently finds the zone, and prevents hits (5/5 outs in play!), creating the foundation he’s always needed for his elite breakers. It’s all there, even changeups playing around against LHB. Now he gets two against the Mets and finally this MM melts in your mouth, not in your hand.
Bryan Woo (SEA) vs CHW (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 90 pitches.
Aces gonna ace with a co-share of the Gallows Pole. You know, if we move past the two starts where he allowed 6 HR, Woo has a 1.80 ERA with a 0.84 WHIP in eight starts and 50 IP. JUST SAYING.
Walbert Ureña (LAA) vs ATH (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 92 pitches.
I gotta say, I kinda love watching Ureña throw 45% changeups when he has 97+ mph in his back pocket. The real surprise wasn’t the slowball, though. It was a highly productive sweeper to RHB for a 25% SwStr rate and 67% strikes. That’s a gamechanger for Ureña if he can hold that and with TEX, @TBR, and Rockie Road up next, I’d consider a pick-up. He’s figuring out how to use his sinker and four-seamer appropriately, with the changeup feel clearly not going away.
Kendry Rojas (MIN) vs HOU (ND) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 46 pitches.
It seems as though the Twins are trying to stretch out Rojas to take SWR’s spot, but don’t be fooled by his four frames – he’s still a ways to go with just 46 pitches to his name. There’s some intrigue here as a 96 mph southpaw, though I wonder if he lacks the arsenal to make this work as a proper starter. His 89 mph slider is more like a cutter at 6-7″ of
